The Gapnium Coefficient · as of 7 Nov 2026
On a scale where 0 is no progress toward a technological singularity and 1 is having crossed it, this is our evidence-based estimate of where the world stands today.
Hover the chart to read values · click a marker to open its articles
Every point, every source
-
Claude Opus 5.5: frontier performance at lower cost
Opus 5.5 reports 66.4% on Terminal-Bench 4.0, 81.8% on OSWorld 2.1 and matches Fable 5.1 on most work for ~40% less than Opus 5.
Autonomy +0.016 Automation +0.010 Compute +0.006 -
OpenAI model reports ten more mathematical advances
OpenAI says an unreleased model made ten new mathematical advances, including solutions to three more Erdős problems.
Discovery +0.018 Recursion +0.004 -
Claude Opus 5 sets agentic and knowledge-work records
Anthropic's Opus 5 comes close to Claude Fable 5 at half the price and scores roughly three times the next-best model on ARC-AGI 3.
Cognition +0.022 Autonomy +0.016 Automation +0.012 -
AI disproves Erdős's 1946 unit distance conjecture
OpenAI announces an internal reasoning model produced a counterexample to a famous 80-year-old Erdős conjecture, checked by mathematicians including Tim Gowers.
Discovery +0.040 Cognition +0.015 -
GPT-5.5 released
OpenAI's GPT-5.5 reports 82.7% on Terminal-Bench 2.0, a large step for terminal-based agentic work.
Autonomy +0.014 Cognition +0.008 -
Claude Opus 4.6 brings 1M context to Opus
Opus 4.6 posts state-of-the-art results on Terminal-Bench 2.0, Humanity's Last Exam and BrowseComp, and leads GDPval-AA.
Autonomy +0.018 Automation +0.010 Cognition +0.008 -
METR Time Horizon 1.1 and its limits
METR expands its task suite to 228 tasks with more than twice as many 8h+ tasks, and cautions that a 50% horizon is not a delegation guarantee.
Autonomy +0.006 Automation −0.003 -
Erdős problems start falling to AI
Hobbyists using GPT-5.2 Pro solve Erdős Problem #728, and a DeepMind-led team uses Gemini to resolve four more and locate old solutions to nine.
Discovery +0.015 -
Claude Opus 4.5 outscores human engineering candidates
Anthropic says Opus 4.5 scored higher than any human candidate on its take-home engineering exam, with 80.9% on SWE-bench Verified.
Autonomy +0.015 Recursion +0.012 -
Gemini 3 sets new reasoning records
Google's Gemini 3 Pro tops LMArena and posts ~37.5% on Humanity's Last Exam without tools and 31% on ARC-AGI-2.
Cognition +0.022 -
First reported AI-orchestrated cyber-espionage campaign
Anthropic reports disrupting a state-sponsored campaign in which an AI agent performed 80–90% of the intrusion work autonomously.
Autonomy +0.012 -
Figure 03 designed for homes and mass production
Figure unveils its third-generation humanoid, built around its Helix VLA model and designed for high-volume manufacturing.
Embodiment +0.008 -
Claude Sonnet 4.5 sustains 30-hour tasks
Anthropic reports Claude Sonnet 4.5 maintaining focus for more than 30 hours on complex multi-step tasks, and 61% on OSWorld.
Autonomy +0.020 Recursion +0.006 -
Gemini Robotics 1.5 brings agents into the physical world
DeepMind's vision-language-action models plan multi-step physical tasks and transfer skills across robot bodies.
Embodiment +0.012 -
GDPval: models approach experts on real occupational tasks
OpenAI's GDPval finds the best models' work rated as good as or better than industry experts' in nearly half of tasks across 44 occupations.
Automation +0.020 -
AI reaches gold at the ICPC World Finals
Gemini 2.5 Deep Think solves 10 of 12 problems at the world's top university programming contest; OpenAI reports 12 of 12.
Cognition +0.012 Recursion +0.005 -
MIT report: 95% of enterprise gen-AI pilots show no P&L impact
An MIT NANDA study finds most corporate generative-AI pilots deliver little measurable financial return.
Automation −0.008 -
GPT-5 released
OpenAI's GPT-5 unifies fast and reasoning modes, posting 74.9% on SWE-bench Verified and lower hallucination rates.
Cognition +0.010 Automation +0.010 -
Genie 3 generates interactive worlds in real time
DeepMind's Genie 3 world model generates navigable 3D environments at 24 fps that stay consistent for minutes.
Embodiment +0.010 Cognition +0.004 -
Gemini Deep Think wins IMO gold
An advanced Gemini Deep Think model solves 5 of 6 IMO problems in natural language within the time limit, officially certified gold.
Cognition +0.025 Discovery +0.006 -
ChatGPT agent unifies browsing, research and actions
OpenAI merges Operator and Deep Research into one agent with its own virtual computer.
Autonomy +0.010 -
METR RCT: AI tools made experienced developers 19% slower
A randomised trial finds experienced open-source developers took 19% longer with early-2025 AI tools, despite believing they were 20% faster.
Automation −0.012 Recursion −0.006 -
Apple: "The Illusion of Thinking"
Apple researchers report reasoning models collapse to zero accuracy beyond a complexity threshold on controllable puzzles.
Cognition −0.005 -
Claude 4 works autonomously for hours
Claude Opus 4 leads SWE-bench (72.5%) and is reported to run a multi-hour open-source refactor independently.
Autonomy +0.018 Cognition +0.006 -
AlphaEvolve improves algorithms — and Google's own AI stack
A Gemini-powered coding agent discovers a faster 4×4 complex matrix multiplication and recovers ~0.7% of Google's worldwide compute.
Recursion +0.025 Discovery +0.015 Compute +0.005 -
o3 and o4-mini use tools while reasoning
OpenAI's reasoning models can agentically search, run code and analyse images inside their chain of thought.
Cognition +0.010 Autonomy +0.008 -
Gemini 2.5 Pro leads major leaderboards
Google's first "thinking" Gemini tops LMArena and posts state-of-the-art maths and science scores.
Cognition +0.012 -
ARC-AGI-2 launches; frontier models score in single digits
The harder successor to ARC-AGI sees pure LLMs at 0% and reasoning models at only a few percent, versus ~60% for human panels.
Cognition −0.010 -
METR: agent task length doubling every ~7 months
METR finds the length of tasks frontier agents complete with 50% reliability has doubled roughly every 7 months for six years.
Autonomy +0.020 -
Claude 3.7 Sonnet and Claude Code
Anthropic releases a hybrid reasoning model and Claude Code, an agentic command-line coding tool.
Autonomy +0.018 Recursion +0.012 -
Google's AI co-scientist generates validated hypotheses
A multi-agent Gemini system proposes research hypotheses, including drug-repurposing candidates confirmed in lab experiments.
Discovery +0.010 Recursion +0.005 -
Deep Research agents produce analyst-grade reports
OpenAI's Deep Research autonomously browses for up to 30 minutes and writes cited, multi-page reports.
Autonomy +0.012 Automation +0.008 -
Humanity's Last Exam: models below 10%
A 3,000-question expert-written benchmark finds frontier models scoring under 10%, with poor calibration.
Cognition −0.008 -
OpenAI Operator browses the web for users
A browser-using agent that can fill forms, order groceries and book travel is released to users.
Autonomy +0.012 -
Stargate: $500 billion AI infrastructure project
OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX announce plans to invest up to $500B in US AI data centres over four years.
Compute +0.030 -
DeepSeek-R1: open reasoning model at a fraction of the cost
DeepSeek releases an open-weights reasoning model performing on par with o1 on maths and code.
Compute +0.012 Cognition +0.008 Automation +0.005 -
o3 scores 75.7% on ARC-AGI-1
OpenAI's o3 reaches 75.7% on the ARC-AGI semi-private set (87.5% at high compute), a benchmark that resisted LLMs for five years.
Cognition +0.035 -
RE-Bench: agents vs. human ML researchers
METR finds AI agents beat human experts on ML research-engineering tasks at 2 hours, but humans win decisively given 8+ hours.
Recursion +0.010 Autonomy −0.004 -
FrontierMath: frontier models solve under 2%
Epoch AI's research-level maths benchmark shows leading models solving fewer than 2% of problems.
Cognition −0.010 -
Claude gains computer use
Anthropic releases a model that operates a computer by looking at the screen, moving a cursor and typing.
Autonomy +0.020 Automation +0.005 -
Nobel Prize in Chemistry for AlphaFold and protein design
Demis Hassabis and John Jumper share the Chemistry Nobel with David Baker for computational protein structure prediction and design.
Discovery +0.010 -
OpenAI o1 introduces reasoning models
o1 "thinks" before answering using RL-trained chain of thought, jumping from 13% to 83% on an IMO qualifying exam.
Cognition +0.040 Recursion +0.010 Compute +0.008 -
Sakana's "AI Scientist" writes full ML papers
An agent pipeline generates ideas, runs ML experiments and writes complete papers for about $15 each.
Recursion +0.014 -
AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2 reach IMO silver
DeepMind's systems solve 4 of 6 problems at the International Mathematical Olympiad, scoring at silver-medal level.
Cognition +0.020 Discovery +0.008 -
Claude 3.5 Sonnet raises the coding bar
Claude 3.5 Sonnet outperforms Claude 3 Opus at a fifth of the cost and solves 64% of problems in an internal agentic coding eval.
Autonomy +0.020 Cognition +0.010 Recursion +0.006 -
GPT-4o brings real-time multimodal interaction
OpenAI's GPT-4o reasons across audio, vision and text in real time, at GPT-4 level, free to all users.
Automation +0.010 Cognition +0.008 -
AlphaFold 3 models all of life's molecules
AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of proteins, DNA, RNA and ligands.
Discovery +0.014 -
Boston Dynamics unveils all-electric Atlas
The hydraulic Atlas is retired in favour of an all-electric humanoid designed for commercial work.
Embodiment +0.010 -
Nvidia announces Blackwell
Nvidia's Blackwell platform promises large gains in training and inference throughput for trillion-parameter models.
Compute +0.020 -
Devin is billed as an autonomous AI software engineer
Cognition unveils Devin, an agent that plans and executes multi-step software tasks, resolving ~14% of SWE-bench issues.
Autonomy +0.018 -
Claude 3 family matches GPT-4
Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus tops GPT-4 on several reasoning benchmarks including GPQA.
Cognition +0.015 -
Sora generates minute-long coherent video
OpenAI previews Sora, a video model producing up to a minute of high-fidelity video from text.
Cognition +0.008 Embodiment +0.006 -
AlphaGeometry solves olympiad geometry
AlphaGeometry solves 25 of 30 IMO geometry problems, close to an average gold medallist.
Cognition +0.012 Discovery +0.004 -
FunSearch makes new discoveries in mathematics
An LLM-driven evolutionary search finds new constructions for the cap set problem, a first genuine LLM contribution to an open maths problem.
Discovery +0.012 Recursion +0.006 -
GNoME predicts 2.2 million new crystals
DeepMind's GNoME identifies 380,000 stable materials, an order-of-magnitude expansion of known stable inorganic crystals.
Discovery +0.012 -
GPT-4 passes professional exams
GPT-4 scores around the top 10% on a simulated bar exam and accepts image inputs.
Cognition +0.050 Automation +0.015 Autonomy +0.010 -
Meta releases LLaMA, open weights spread
Meta's LLaMA models match much larger systems, and their weights quickly spread to the open research community.
Automation +0.006 Compute +0.004 -
ChatGPT launches
OpenAI releases ChatGPT; it becomes the fastest-growing consumer application in history.
Automation +0.035 Cognition +0.010 Compute +0.010 -
AlphaTensor discovers faster matrix multiplication
An RL agent finds matrix-multiplication algorithms that beat human-designed ones, including improving a 50-year-old record for 4×4 matrices in a finite field.
Discovery +0.012 Recursion +0.010 -
AlphaFold DB expands to 200 million structures
Predicted structures for nearly every catalogued protein known to science are released freely.
Discovery +0.020 -
PaLM scales to 540B parameters with reasoning gains
Google's PaLM shows breakthrough performance on multi-step reasoning with chain-of-thought prompting.
Cognition +0.012 Compute +0.006 -
Chinchilla rewrites the scaling laws
DeepMind shows most large models were under-trained; a 70B model on more data beats much larger ones.
Compute +0.012 Recursion +0.003 -
AlphaCode reaches median competitive-programmer level
DeepMind's AlphaCode ranks around the top 54% of human competitors on Codeforces contests.
Cognition +0.010 Recursion +0.004 -
AlphaFold published in Nature, code released
The AlphaFold 2 method is peer-reviewed and open-sourced, and its structure database launches days later.
Discovery +0.015 -
GitHub Copilot puts an AI pair-programmer in the editor
GitHub previews Copilot, powered by OpenAI Codex, suggesting whole lines and functions as developers type.
Automation +0.012 Recursion +0.008 -
DALL·E generates images from text
OpenAI shows a transformer that composes novel images from natural-language descriptions.
Cognition +0.008 -
AlphaFold 2 solves protein structure prediction at CASP14
DeepMind's AlphaFold 2 predicts protein structures with accuracy competitive with experiment, addressing a 50-year-old grand challenge.
Discovery +0.050 Cognition +0.005 -
GPT-3 shows few-shot learning at scale
OpenAI's 175B-parameter GPT-3 performs new tasks from a handful of examples in the prompt, without fine-tuning.
Cognition +0.030 Compute +0.010